According to the note released by Goldman Sachs on Monday, it is cutting its growth forecasts for the U.S. economy, cautioning investors that the risk of a recession is rising.
The analysts highlighted their growing concerns that the Fed will feel compelled to respond forcefully to high inflation expectations in case energy prices increase further, even if activity slows sharply.
The analysts now assign a 30% probability of the economy entering a recession over the next year, compared to their previous estimate of 15%. Furthermore, they assign a 25% conditional probability of a recession in a year-later period if it is avoided next year.