MLB HR Derby odds: Pete Alonso surges to favorite to 3-peat

Pete Alonso has surged into the favorite status as he attempts to become the first player to win the Home Run Derby for the third consecutive time on Monday night.

The New York Mets’ slugger opened as a slight underdog to Philadelphia’s Kyle Schwarber (+325) last week, but Alonso’s odds have shortened significantly at many regulated sportsbooks.

Alonso, who opened at +190 at BetMGM, was being offered at +155 by the sportsbook on Monday. His odds have also shortened to +180 at BetRivers, +195 at PointsBet and +200 at DraftKings.

While Washington’s Juan Soto has been supported by the most bets at 19.6 percent at BetMGM, Alonso is second with 18.7 percent. He also leads with 38.4 percent of the handle — more than twice as much as Schwarber’s 17.2 percent, which is the second-most among the eight-player field.

Soto was the sportsbook’s biggest liability as of Monday, followed by Alonso and Schwarber.

Alonso hit the All-Star break with 24 home runs. He has been backed by 28 percent of the bets and 40 percent of the handle to win Monday night’s Derby at BetRivers. Schwarber, who is +190 at the sportsbook, is second with 14 percent of the handle supporting him to win.

Home Run Derby Odds (BetRivers)
Pete Alonso +180
Kyle Schwarber +290
Ronald Acuna Jr. +500
Juan Soto +550
Julio Rodriguez +700
Corey Seager +1100
Jose Ramirez +1400
Albert Pujols +1800

The Over/Under total of home runs at BetRivers was at 260.5 on Monday. The market has seen split betting with 53 percent of the bets and 56 percent of the handle backing the Over.

Schwarber, who leads the National League with 29 home runs, will open this year’s competition against the future Hall of Famer Pujols, while Alonso will take on Acuna Jr.

Pujols, who returned to St. Louis for his farewell season, is seeking his first title in his fifth Derby appearance. Schwarber beating Pujols in the first round is the second-most wagered-on bet at BetRivers with 14 percent of the handle.

Seager stepped in as the No. 3 seed after being added to the All-Star Game as an injury replacement for Toronto center fielder George Springer. The long-time Dodger played his first seven seasons in Los Angeles and has hit 59 of his 125 career home runs at Dodger Stadium.

Seager will square off against a division rival in Seattle’s Rodriguez. The Mariners outfielder is the first rookie to participate in the Derby since Alonso and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in 2019.

After opening at +1000 at BetMGM, Rodriguez’s odds have shortened to +900. Meanwhile, Seager has been backed by the fewest wagers at the sportsbook to win at 6.6 percent and the second-lowest handle at 4.3 percent as his odds have shifted from +900 to +1000.

The final pairing pits No. 4 seed Soto against No. 5 seed Ramirez. Soto has slugged six of his 20 home runs this season in July, and has drawn 16 percent of the handle at BetRivers to win the competition. The largest single wager at the sportsbook was a $1,800 bet on Soto to beat Ramirez.

Soto upset Shohei Ohtani in an epic first-round battle that went to a swing-off last year. Ramirez will be participating for the first time after hitting 36 home runs last year. He has 19 this season.

–Field Level Media

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