Etsy, Inc. (NASDAQ:ETSY) shares closed more than 9% lower on Thursday following a price target cut by Oppenheimer analysts.
The analysts lowered their price target to $120 from $140 on weaker May conversion data but maintained their Outperform on the long-term market position.
The analysts said the regression of third-party data indicates weaker Q2 on lower conversion, noting a 4% decline in site visits (same as in Q1), but a 20% decline in outgoing payments traffic (vs. 5% year-over-year growth in Q1). As such, their regression model implies gross merchandise sales (GMS) 12% below the Street estimate and marketplace revenue 6% below the Street estimate.
Despite weaker 2022 GMS, Oppenheimer believes the company is maintaining its COVID-19 bump in active buyers and total spending, expecting organic GMS to decline 6% in 2022, but accelerate to a growth of 19% by 2024.
As inflation rates continue to rise, the analysts expect weaker consumer spending in the coming months but remain optimistic about the company’s ability to remain an industry leader and attain market share.