MFA Financial (NYSE:MFA) shares gained more than 16% since the company’s reported Q3 results at the start of the month.
BVPS was $15.31, which represents a quarter-over-quarter decline of 6.8%, more muted compared to some other peer mortgage REITs, amid a significantly challenging market backdrop in the quarter, with significant mortgage spread widening, and was close to the midpoint of the company’s preannounced expectation of $15.25-$15.40.
Analysts at RBC Capital updated their estimates post results. While the company trades at a meaningful discount to BVPS, the analysts continue to think the risk/reward is relatively balanced given a less favorable outlook for mortgage credit due to the potential economic slowdown in the near term.
The analysts’ 2022 distributable earnings per share estimate is being adjusted to $1.71 (from $2.01), and their 2023 distributable earnings per share estimate is being adjusted to $1.42 (from $1.83), reflecting updated asset yield and funding cost assumptions. The analysts raised their price target to $11 from $10 while reiterating their Sector Perform.