Houston Texans (11-7) at Baltimore Ravens (13-4)
Playoff Saturday starts with the Texans’ return trek to Baltimore, where they opened the regular season with 25-9 loss to the Ravens. Houston is 2-10 all-time against the Ravens but history has shifted in the Texans’ favor under rookie head coach DeMeco Ryans and No. 2 pick C.J. Stroud. The Texans have never been to the conference championship game. To get there, finding an answer for the Ravens’ defense is the first order of business. There’s also the task of solving the Lamar Jackson riddle. Baltimore led the NFL in rushing this season at 156.5 yards per game and Jackson averages 91.8 yards on the ground in the playoffs for his career. That makes life tricky for the back seven defenders given the Ravens’ recent shift to a pass-first approach to early downs. Gus Edwards had a career-high 810 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns in the regular season, and Dalvin Cook joins Baltimore for the playoffs. Jackson’s playoff failures have been a storyline this week. He’s 1-3 and lost in the divisional round to the Titans the last time the Ravens secured the top seed in the conference and a first-round bye. Stroud was stellar in shredding the Browns’ No. 1-ranked defense in his playoff debut last week. Now on the road, Stroud braces for Baltimore to mix coverages using safety Kyle Hamilton in a hybrid nickel position with top cover corner Marlon Humphrey (calf) out. The Ravens allowed 16.2 points per game and had a plus-12 turnover margin and 60 sacks in the regular season. The Ravens aren’t optimistic TE Mark Andrews (ankle) can play a role. Jackson can turn to Isaiah Likely, the starter since Andrews was hurt in Week 11.
Green Bay Packers (10-8) at San Francisco 49ers (12-5)
Kyle Shanahan knows Packers head coach Matt LaFleur all too well, having brought him to the NFL as an assistant with the Houston Texans in 2008 under Gary Kubiak. Shanahan and LaFleur meet again as head coaches on Saturday night in the 10th playoff game between the storied franchises. Shanahan’s 49ers are on a redemption tour since the 2022 NFC championship game loss to the Eagles that unraveled when QB Brock Purdy left with a right elbow injury that required offseason surgery. Bionic Brock led the NFL in yards per pass and passer rating (113.0) while leaning on RB Christian McCaffrey for more than 2,000 yards from scrimmage and 21 total touchdowns (seven receiving). There are more weapons where McCaffrey came from, including WR-RB Deebo Samuel (12 total TDs in 2023) and leading receiver Brandon Aiyuk (seven TDs, 17.9 yards per reception). Green Bay’s defense clamped down on the Cowboys in Dallas last week to help the Packers become the first No. 7 seed to win a playoff game. QB Jordan Love has starred with 32 TD passes and Green Bay’s current roll also warrants credit to the healthy return of RB Aaron Jones, who scored three rushing TDs last week. The Packers aren’t rich with household names at the skill positions, but that didn’t stop second-year WR Romeo Doubs from the third-best receiving total (151 yards) in team history at Dallas in the wild-card round. Recent meetings between these coaches and teams produced nail-biters: a 30-28 Packers win at San Francisco in 2021 and a 13-10 49ers victory in the divisional playoffs in January 2022.
–Sunday
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-8) at Detroit Lions (13-5)
Ford Field goes up for grabs as the Lions host playoff games on consecutive weekends with visions of Las Vegas and a spot in Super Bowl LVIII inching closer. The first of two remaining wins required to win the NFC hangs in the balance between the Buccaneers and Lions on Sunday afternoon. It’s the second meeting this season between the former NFC Central rivals, with Detroit bagging a 20-6 victory at Tampa on Oct. 15. Bucs QB Baker Mayfield was under constant pressure in the regular-season matchup. Mayfield is one of two quarterbacks in the NFL this season with 100-plus passer rating on the road (49ers’ Brock Purdy is the other), and he has a career 7-1 TD-to-INT ratio in the playoffs. Detroit’s pressure last week came from DE Aidan Hutchinson, who posted 2.0 sacks, and the Lions aren’t counting on LB James Houston (8.0 sacks last season) to be full strength this week. Houston was activated from injured reserve and returned to practice Tuesday, but he missed the past four months with a broken leg. Explosive receivers are headliners in each offense. Amon-Ra St. Brown was second in the NFL with 119 receptions and had nine games with 100-plus yards in the regular season. Buccaneers WR Mike Evans tied for the NFL lead with 13 touchdowns. His most recent game in Detroit was in 2020 and rather memorable: 10 receptions, 181 yards, two TDs in a 47-7 Tampa victory. There is trust in QB Jared Goff, but the Lions would love to lean into their running game once more. They averaged 135.9 yards per game in the regular season thanks to David Montgomery (1,015 yards) and Jahmyr Gibbs (945). The Buccaneers won the only playoff game between these teams, 20-10 in 1997.
Kansas City Chiefs (12-6) at Buffalo Bills (12-6)
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are in the unfamiliar position of playing on the road in January. Mahomes, 12-3 for his career in the playoffs, can reach the conference championship for a record-tying sixth consecutive season by knocking off Josh Allen and the Bills. Their previous playoff matchup was an epic, back-and-forth fight the Chiefs won (42-36) in overtime in the 2021 AFC Divisional Playoffs on Jan. 23, 2022. Mahomes’ lone visit to play the Bills occurred during the 2020 season when stadiums were empty due to COVID-19. Kansas City won 26-17. Since that contest, the Chiefs and Bills have met five times, all in Kansas City over a span of 34-plus months. The Chiefs twice eliminated the Bills from the playoffs — 38-24 in the 2020 season AFC title game and the OT victory the following season. But Buffalo’s 20-17 win this season at Arrowhead Stadium on Dec. 10 proved big, eventually leading to the Bills being the No. 2 seed and relegating Kansas City to No. 3. A critical matchup in that game and this one: Chiefs CB L’Jarius Snead against Bills WR Stefon Diggs. Diggs caught only one of his three passes in the December game with Snead in coverage and it went for 3 yards. If Bills QB Allen gets to meet Mahomes postgame wearing a smile Sunday night, he’ll likely have a lot to do with the outcome. Allen has thrived in the postseason with three-plus TD passes and a passer rating of at least 90 in four of his past five playoff games. He’s no slouch facing Mahomes, either. Allen has 17 TDs (15 passing) and three INTs in six career games against the Chiefs. Kansas City defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo expects the Bills to focus on mismatches they can create with a pair of talented tight ends, Dawson Knox and rookie Dalton Kincaid. Both had TDs in the wild-card win over the Steelers last week. Buffalo won’t be able to count on Chiefs-killer Gabe Davis, the wide receiver who caught four TDs in the 2021 playoffs at Arrowhead Stadium. He was ruled out with a knee injury.
–Field Level Media
